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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still