Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
