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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.