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Within the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.