Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average figure of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new official statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have advised that murder data could fail to point to better countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen over these past months is very notable,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the smallest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, security analysts urged caution that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also problematic because it may obscure periods when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.