A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
